Nobody could have predicted...

An increase in terrorist threat due to the Iraq War.

The bad news in the National Intelligence Estimate. - By Fred Kaplan - Slate Magazine

The National Intelligence Estimate that was released today—titled "The Terrorist Threat to the Homeland"—amounts to a devastating critique of the Bush administration's policies on Iraq, Iran, and the terrorist threat itself.

Its main point is that the threat—after having greatly receded over the past five years—is back in full force. Al-Qaida has "protected or regenerated key elements" of its ability to attack the United States. It has a "safe haven" in Pakistan. Its "top leadership" and "operational lieutenants" are intact. It is cooperating more with "regional terrorist groups."

And there are hints that the swarm organization that is talked about at Global Guerillas all the time is seeping into the consciousness of the intelligence community in the US.

One major reason for al-Qaida's resurgence, according to the report, is its "association with" al-Qaida in Iraq. (Note, by the way, that these two organizations are said to be "associated" or "affiliated" with each other; contrary to what Bush has said in recent speeches, they are not the same entity.) This affiliation "helps al-Qaida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks." (Italics added.)

Fred Kaplan has tackled this follow us home stuff before.
And so has Keith Olbermann:

Crooks and Liars » Countdown: al Qaeda Reality Check

Keith Olbermann and terrorism analyst Roger Cressey knocks down the lies and spin of Bush’s increasingly delusional assertions of al Qaeda in Iraq.
…it’s completely misleading. The organization that attacked us on 9/11 is still trying to attack us. That is the group that is primarily on the Afghan/Pakistan border that you’ve seen all the intelligence community assessments about in the past few days. The group inside Iraq is very indigenous. It’s a function of what happened in Iraq after Saddam was overthrown. In effect, we’ve actually helped create the conditions that allowed al Qaeda to take root in Iraq. It’s clear that al Qaeda in Iraq has ideological sympathies with al Qaeda Central that clued there’s been some communication between the two, but it is false and misleading for the president to make that direct linkage that he did.

For Christ's sake, Bush, join the Reality Based Community, will ya?

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